By Michael Shook
As I type this, we are about a month away from the inauguration of the President. Trump will go from “President-elect” to full-on “President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump.” These words strike fear and loathing into the hearts and minds of many Americans. But having heard some of these concerns, I’m reminded of something Mark Twain said: “Most of the things I worried about in life never happened.” I think that may be true for Trump2.
This is not to say that I regard Trump’s latest bout as President casually, though in fairness, I don’t regard any particular Presidential term casually. One can never quite foresee the direction an administration might take, nor what crises might arise, or the subsequent response made to those crises (terrorist attacks, the Iranian hostage situation of 1979, COVID, financial meltdowns, etc.).
I do think it safe to say that Trump2 will be, if nothing else, at least as bumpy a ride as his first administration, even if nothing crazy happens in the rest of the world (the odds of the latter are slim to none). The chaos, the rants, the texts at all hours of the day and night, the lawsuits (some of which are already rolling), the blustering accusations, and the slights feverishly fomented – both real and imagined – all this and perhaps more will come our way.
In the near term, a concern for me is the economy. The much-spoken-of tariffs could be bad, especially for Washington state’s export-based livelihoods, as many have already noted. We could also get a double whammy if Trump manages to deport significant numbers of illegal immigrants, given the crucial work they accomplish in many sectors, farm labor foremost. On the other hand, for how many years now have previous administrations (hello, Biden/Harris) and Congress kicked the can down the road on this issue? If they had not so badly botched securing the Southern Border, and created a reasonable, workable plan for hiring seasonal labor, we wouldn’t have the situation we have now.
There are some decidedly good things Trump has proposed. For example, getting rid of the idiocy called “Daylight Savings Time.” This would be nothing short of fabulous. It’s a stupid idea to begin with, akin to cutting one end off of a blanket, then sewing it onto the other end (as cartoonist Oliphant noted decades ago).
Bizarrely, our own Senator Murray said recently, “I’ve been fighting for years to make Daylight Savings Time (DST) permanent so that Americans can have more sunlight during their most productive hours …” I say “bizarrely” because, what the heck happened to “Follow the science?” And the science on sleep is crystal clear. Doctors who study sleep, including the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, the American Medical Association, and the Sleep Research Society, all recommend permanent Standard Time, nationwide. The health consequences to DST are significant and well-documented. They include increases in car accidents, cardiac incidents (heart attacks), and atrial fibrillation onset, among others.
Another proposal that appeals to me, at least in principle, is Trump’s intention to appoint Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a Department of Government Efficiency (DoGE), though it does seem a distinctly Quixotic adventure. However, the federal budget last year was $6.75 trillion, and we are now $36.17 trillion in debt, which is 123% of the Gross National Product. Interest payments alone were $882 billion, which is more than the Defense budget. (Just typing numbers like this makes me queasy.) I can’t help but think reducing some of that would be good.
But, as with all efforts to rein in spending, there’s a rub. By far, the bulk of the budget is Social Security, interest on the debt, Medicare and Medicaid, defense, and various supplemental aid. Those items cost about $5.7 trillion, and since we took in “only” $4.9 trillion, and there is another $1.1 trillion worth of budget items piled on that, cutting back starts to look rather daunting. Who’s going to say, “Sure, cut my benefits, childcare aid, medical …”? Who, of any party, is going to give up his or her slice of the pie? Or even a part of it?
The reluctance to give up something we already have may stop cold any plans to shrink the government significantly. After all, the bottom line of politics has forever been, “What have you done for me lately?” which refers to all things monetary. This is closely followed by the successful politician’s credo of fixing potholes, i.e., “Give people stuff, or get stuff done that (might) make their lives easier.”
Well, we’re all familiar by now with the things Trump has said he will do. Who knows if he will be able to accomplish the bulk of it? Though the Republicans do have majorities, they are thin, and politicians of every stripe always want, desperately, to be re-elected. A goodly number may find a way to evade certain vexing votes just to placate their constituents, especially when it comes to the pocketbooks thereof.
Time will tell. Meanwhile, I plan on giving as little of my attention as possible to whatever sound and fury ensues. Instead, I’ll focus on what is actually in my control – which is not much – while bearing in mind Candide’s immortal admonition: “Il faut cultiver notre jardin” (“We must tend our garden”).
